. . . let’s check to see if what was conjectured last Friday was close to correct. As a recap, here’s last Friday’s graph:
predicting 2,152 cases by the 34th day after 01Mar or 03Apr. Today’s graph with weekly projection looks like:
The last data point is 2,041 cases. This varies from 2,152 by only 5.2%. But, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results so we’ll have to see if next Friday North Carolina has a reported 4033 +/- 208 cases.
You may notice that the blue line showing the number of new cases is missing from the second graph. The y-axis scale became so large as to make that line a mere blue squiggle along the 0 grid line. I have broken that data into a separate graph showing the daily number of reported cases with a non-linear least squares fit and seven day projection. Today it looks like:
For me this is the Scary Graph. Down around day 20, 50 cases were getting reported each day. Ten days later this jumps to around 150. Ten days after that (the end of next week), if the projection holds, we’ll be seeing 500 reported cases a day. This is not a good trend and indicates that we haven’t entered into the middle part of the infectious spread where the number of new cases per day is relatively constant.
An interesting feature that jumps out at me are the “blips” in the data. It’s not obvious below day 15 but there’s a hint of it. There’s a jump up then a plunge the next day followed by three days of smoothly increasing data.
Will we now get three smoothly increasing days close to the projected line as we have in the previous two cycles? If the blips persist what’s causing them? [My bet is some of the reporting entities are releasing their numbers in batches and some are releasing numbers daily.]
Stay tuned (click the follow link if you’re interested). If something striking happens I’ll post it but look for the next post to drop next Friday.